Every fall, the food industry floods with trend predictions.
Beautiful reports. Big claims. Zero accountability.
So we did something different: we put 16 of 2026’s buzziest food trends to the test.
Not with surveys or focus groups, but with 20 primary grocery purchasers recruited from 320,000 population-true synthetic personas calibrated to real consumer behavior.
The verdict?
- Five trends earned “Go Big” (Neostalgia, butter as luxury, global flavors, sourdough, flatbreads)
- Nine need proof (“Watch Closely”)
- Two are pure hype (“Hot Air”: vinegar tonics and beef tallow)
Our synthetic panel didn’t hold back:
- “Vinegar drinks? That’s just salad dressing.”
- “My house smelled for a week.” (on tallow)
- “I’ll pay extra if it’s a proven banger with real flavor.” (on freezer fine dining)
This is what happens when you test trends against actual purchase behavior instead of Instagram buzz.
Most trend reports are written to get shared on LinkedIn, not to guide strategy. They look impressive in slide decks. They give everyone something to talk about at conferences.
But they don’t tell you what people will buy.
We’re not interested in what sounds cool. We’re interested in what moves product.
Turns out, most of what the industry calls “trends” are just marketing departments hoping something sticks.